Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
