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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans improving together. During an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still